Saturday, July 26, 2008

Have The Financials Bottomed?

Lower Revenue:
Subprime Lending
Auction Rate Securities
100% Financing
Leveraged Buy Outs

Higher Expenses:
New Debt Will Cost More
Recently Issued Debt Already Costs More (Preferred Stock)

Less Growth:
Consumers have the most debt ever in the history of the world.
Consumers have the lowest savings rate ever in the history of the world.
Consumers are afraid to take on more risk.

Not to mention if the assets on most financials balance sheets were all market to market they would have negative equity.

That means a much lower profit margin going forward. That should also mean a higher risk premium going forward. (Aka lower PE ratio)

Financials are no where near the bottom.

SKF